# MDA elections pack handoff

Written 2026-09-03 to `/workspace/elections-ingest/mda/`.

## Files / counts

| File | Rows (excl. header) | Path |
|---|---|---|
| elections.csv | 5 | /workspace/elections-ingest/mda/elections.csv |
| people.csv | 101 | /workspace/elections-ingest/mda/people.csv |
| money-edges.csv | 0 | /workspace/elections-ingest/mda/money-edges.csv |
| polls.csv | 0 | /workspace/elections-ingest/mda/polls.csv |
| results.csv | 52302 | /workspace/elections-ingest/mda/results.csv |
| SOURCES.md | — | /workspace/elections-ingest/mda/SOURCES.md |
| STATS.json | — | /workspace/elections-ingest/mda/STATS.json |
| HANDOFF.md | — | /workspace/elections-ingest/mda/HANDOFF.md |

## Cycle status

- `mda-parl-2025` **sitting** — 2025-09-28; `date_confidence=confirmed_official`.
- `mda-pres-2024-r1` **sitting** — 2024-10-20; `date_confidence=confirmed_official`.
- `mda-pres-2024-r2` **sitting** — 2024-11-03; `date_confidence=confirmed_official`.
- `mda-pres-next` **sitting** — 2028; `date_confidence=constitutional_due`.
- `mda-parl-next` **sitting** — 2029; `date_confidence=constitutional_due`.

## People

`cec-2025-mandate-NNN` = ordinal in the 101-mandate validation list; not an official profile id.

`bio_text` is empty; no biographies were authored.

## Money

Header-only. CEC filings were PDF-based; no machine-readable normalized edges were transcribed. Currency would be MDL as filed.

Party-level money, if added later, must keep blank `person_id`; no fuzzy-name join is permitted.

## Polls

Header-only. Non-CEC media polling was reviewed but excluded because the requested rule was empty unless CEC publishes; no CEC-published topline table was located.

## Last-cycle returns

`results.csv` contains official CEC XLSX polling-station × party returns for the 2025 parliamentary election.

## Join keys

- `election_id` joins all contest-scoped tables.
- `person_id` joins people to money only when the regulator carries the same official id; there are no such money joins in this pack.
- `constituency_id` is source-native in results; do not assume it equals a map geometry id without a crosswalk.

## Rights / licences

- Each row/source records the publisher and known rights statement. No open licence was assumed where none was stated.
- Review publisher terms before redistribution; see `SOURCES.md`.

## Caveats

- `people.csv` is the 101 mandates validated on 2025-10-16, not a verified live sitting roster. The official Parliament roster returned Cloudflare 403. The source itself says Dorin Recean and Ion Ceban announced they would relinquish mandates; replacements were not guessed.
- `person_id` is a derived validated-list ordinal, not a Parliament identifier. Do not use it to join money.
- CEC finance links inspected were PDF notices/filings. Header-only money is intentional.
- CEC results are polling-station × party; candidate and seats fields are blank. Moldova uses a nationwide PR contest, while station geography is retained in `constituency_name`.

---

## 2026-09-03 (America/Chicago) — polls backfill

**`polls.csv`: 20 -> 77 option rows, 4 distinct surveys, 4 pollsters.** Header unchanged.

The 20 pre-existing iData/IMAS rows were **preserved byte-identically** as data rows 1–20; verified by md5 (the first
21 lines of the new file hash to the pre-write whole-file md5 `9a2ad28e083ab6348f8d5add57a9757f`). New rows are appended
after them. `results.csv`, `people.csv`, `money-edges.csv` and `elections.csv` were not touched.

| poll_id | pollster | rows | field dates | n | moe | election_id |
|---|---|---:|---|---:|---|---|
| `idata-2026-03` | iData | 15 *(pre-existing)* | 2026-02-23 – 2026-03-06 | 1035 | ±2.9% | `mda-parl-next` |
| `imas-2026-07` | IMAS | 5 *(pre-existing)* + 28 new | 2026-07-10 – 2026-07-20 | 1015 / 735 | ±3.1% | `mda-parl-next`, `mda-pres-next` |
| `cbs-watchdog-2025-09` | CBS-Research / WatchDog.MD | 17 | 2025-09-06 – 2025-09-13 | 1127 | ±2.9% | `mda-parl-2025` |
| `ates-2026-06` | ATES Research Group | 12 | 2026-05-27 – 2026-06-08 | 1004 | ±3% | `mda-parl-next`, `mda-pres-next` |

Every `election_id` written resolves against `elections.csv`. Ids used: `mda-parl-2025`, `mda-parl-next`,
`mda-pres-next`.

### What was added

- **IMAS iulie 2026** — sourced to the pollster's own report PDF
  (`https://imas.md/pic/archives/56/[imas] barometrul socio-politic_iulie 2026.pdf`) rather than the IPN wire used by
  the pre-existing rows. Added (a) the **decided-voter** parliamentary table (13 options, denominator 735 of 1015) as a
  distinct `question_text`, and (b) the 15-option presidential question conditioned on Maia Sandu being
  constitutionally ineligible. The all-respondent parliamentary table was **left alone** — it already carries a merged
  "would not vote / do not know 27.6" row, and appending its component options (`Nu aş vota` 9.1 + `NŞ/NR` 18.5) would
  have double-counted.
- **CBS-Research / WatchDog.MD septembrie 2025** — 17-option pre-election vote intention for the 2025-09-28
  parliamentary contest; CAPI, authorised by the CEC under Hotărâre nr. 3924 of 2025-09-05.
- **ATES Research Group iunie 2026** — vote intention (5 published options; other parties were reported only as
  "below the threshold", with no individual figures, so none were invented) plus the 7-option political-trust ranking.
  The trust rows are flagged in `notes` as **not** a presidential ballot question.

### Discrepancies and things deliberately not written

- Secondary write-ups of the IMAS July 2026 presidential question disagreed with each other (one outlet reported
  "Dodon 24.1%, Ion Ceban 9.9%, Vasile Tarlev 7.2%" — 24.1 is in fact the `NŞ/NR` share). Figures here are read from
  the **IMAS report table itself**, which gives Dodon 13.9, Costiuc 9.9, Usatîi 7.2, Stoianoglo 6.6, Grosu 6.5.
- The IMAS "country direction" measure is published only as a 23-wave trend **chart**; the July 2026 point could not be
  tied to a value with confidence, so no direction rows were written.
- An iData May 2026 wave (PAS 30.7 / PSRM 12.2 / Democrația Acasă 5.9) was found only via an aggregator republishing a
  Telegram post, with no methodology block — **not ingested**.
- EU-accession referendum toplines from the ATES and CBS waves were left out: there is no referendum `election_id` in
  this pack and none was invented.
- No `moe`, `sample_n` or field date was estimated anywhere; all 57 new rows carry publisher-printed values.
- No Wikipedia URL is used anywhere in the file.

Raw artefacts: `_raw/imas_iulie2026.pdf`, `_raw/watchdog_cbs_sep2025.pdf`.